Story Highlights
- A Fox News poll conducted May 15–18 among 1,002 registered voters put Trump’s overall job approval at 39 percent with 61 percent disapproval — the highest disapproval figure recorded in Fox News polling during Trump’s presidency, driven primarily by economic anxiety among Republican voters
- An AP/NORC poll from May 14–18 found that 37 percent of Republicans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy — the highest recorded level of intraparty dissatisfaction on that issue — and 30 percent of Republicans disapprove of his handling of the Iran war
- Independent voter approval of Trump has fallen to approximately 34 percent, according to aggregated polling, below the 36 percent level that preceded Democrats’ 41-seat House wave gain in the 2018 midterms
What Happened
Multiple major polling organizations released surveys in the two weeks ending May 20, 2026 that together painted a challenging picture of President Donald Trump‘s political standing heading into the final six months before the November midterms. The results represented not a single bad poll but a sustained pattern of declining support across a range of measures and survey methodologies.
The most significant data point came from a Fox News survey conducted May 15 through 18 among 1,002 registered voters. The poll recorded Trump’s overall job approval at 39 percent, with 61 percent disapproving — the highest disapproval figure the network’s polling operation has recorded during Trump’s presidency. The survey found that Republican net approval of Trump had fallen by 14 points between February and May, a decline pollsters attributed almost entirely to mounting voter anxiety over inflation and the cost of living.
An AP/NORC poll released in the same period, conducted among 1,117 adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, found that 37 percent of Republicans disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy — the highest level of intraparty economic dissatisfaction recorded in that survey. Thirty percent of Republicans also expressed disapproval of Trump’s handling of the Iran war, a conflict now approaching its third month following the February U.S.-Israeli strikes.
A New York Times/Siena College poll recorded Trump’s overall disapproval at 59 percent, the highest in that survey’s history. Aggregated data from RealClear Polling showed Trump’s approval average at approximately 38.7 percent in May, with disapproval at 58.3 percent and a net approval of negative 19.6 points. Among independent voters — the decisive group in general elections — Trump’s approval has dropped to approximately 34 percent, below the 36 percent threshold that preceded the 41-seat Democratic wave gain in the 2018 midterms.
The Brookings Institution published analysis noting that approval for Trump’s handling of specific issues was uniformly low: inflation at 30 percent approval, the overall economy at 37 percent, health care at 29 percent, and tariffs at 38 percent. Only 41 percent of respondents approved of Trump’s handling of the Iran war. On the generic congressional ballot, RealClear Politics aggregates showed Democrats leading by approximately 5.7 percentage points on average, with some surveys showing advantages of 10 points or more.
Why It Matters
Presidential approval ratings are the single most reliable leading indicator of midterm election outcomes in modern American political history. When a president’s approval falls below 45 percent heading into a midterm, his party historically loses House seats. When independent approval falls below 40 percent, wave conditions emerge. The current data places Trump in the worst approval position of either of his terms at the exact moment when the political environment for November is crystallizing.
For Republican candidates running in competitive House and Senate seats, the polling creates a fundamental strategic dilemma. Aligning closely with Trump in primaries has been essential for survival — as the May primary results demonstrated clearly. But the general electorate polling suggests that same alignment becomes a liability in November contests where independent voters are decisive. Managing both constraints simultaneously is politically difficult, particularly in suburban districts where college-educated voters have been trending Democratic since 2018.
The drivers of Trump’s decline are specific and consequential. Economic dissatisfaction — particularly around inflation and the cost of living — is not a media narrative but a lived experience for American households. PCE inflation running at approximately 4.5 percent in the first quarter of 2026, combined with elevated food and energy costs tied in part to the Hormuz disruption, has eroded confidence in the administration’s economic management among voters who backed Trump primarily for economic reasons.
Economic and Global Context
The relationship between presidential approval and economic indicators is one of the most robust in political science. Trump’s first-term approval held relatively stable in part because of a strong pre-pandemic economy with low unemployment and contained inflation. The second-term environment is materially different: tariff-driven cost increases are embedded in consumer prices, the Iran conflict has elevated energy costs, and first-quarter GDP growth of 2.0 percent alongside 4.5 percent inflation raises legitimate stagflation concerns that resonate with voters regardless of political affiliation.
The specific finding that 30 percent of Republicans disapprove of Trump’s Iran war management is politically significant. The Iran conflict was launched without a formal congressional authorization for the use of military force and has not produced the swift resolution Trump initially projected. For Republican voters who supported Trump on a platform that included skepticism of foreign military adventures, the protracted ceasefire-then-no-deal dynamic has generated genuine disappointment.
Global investors and allied governments use presidential approval as one input into assessments of American political stability. A sustained period of historically low approval heading into midterms introduces uncertainty about whether the current administration’s policies will survive a potential change in congressional composition. That uncertainty affects long-term planning for trade, investment, and diplomatic engagement.
Implications
For the Republican Party’s House and Senate majorities, the approval trajectory creates urgency around delivering legislative wins before November. A party that goes into a midterm without tangible accomplishments to point to — and with a president at 38 percent approval and a deteriorating relationship with Senate leadership — faces a structurally difficult environment. The failure to pass the immigration enforcement package, the anti-weaponization fund controversy, and the SAVE America Act standoff have left the legislative agenda effectively stalled as the summer recess approaches.
For Trump personally, the approval numbers are a lagging indicator of the cumulative effect of multiple simultaneously controversial decisions: the Iran war, the tariff regime, the primary retribution campaign, the ballroom project, and the DOJ investigations of political adversaries. Each individual decision had a constituency within the Republican base. Their aggregate effect on the broader electorate is reflected in these surveys.
For Republican strategists, the independent voter figure is the most alarming data point. Recovering from a 34 percent independent approval rating in five months is achievable only with a significant change in economic conditions, a major foreign policy success, or an external event that reshapes the political landscape. Absent such a catalyst, the structural conditions for a difficult November appear firmly in place.
Sources
“Trump Approval Rating Hits All-Time Low With GOP: Fox News Poll”
