Story Highlights
- Trump endorsed Ken Paxton over Senator John Cornyn in the Texas GOP Senate runoff on May 19, days after early voting began for the May 26 election
- Trump cited Cornyn’s late support during his 2024 presidential campaign and praised Paxton as a “true MAGA Warrior”
- The Texas race is now the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history, with both parties having spent well over $100 million combined
What Happened
President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced a late endorsement of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in his bid to unseat incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the state’s competitive Republican Senate primary. “Ken is a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas, and will continue to do so in the United States Senate,” Trump said on Truth Social, adding that “Paxton has gone through a lot, in many cases, very unfairly.”
Neither Paxton nor Cornyn received more than 50 percent of the vote during the state’s Republican primary in March, which triggered a runoff between the two candidates. Trump’s endorsement comes just a week before the May 26 runoff election. During the first round of the primary, Cornyn won 42 percent of the vote while Paxton won 40.5 percent.
Trump said he is endorsing Paxton in part because he supports eliminating the filibuster and passing the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, which would require voters to provide documentary proof of citizenship when they register to vote. Cornyn “was very late in backing me in what turned out to be a Historic Run for the Republican Nomination, and then, the Presidency, itself,” Trump wrote.
Cornyn pushed back against Trump’s assertion that the long-time Texas senator had not been supportive. “I have worked closely with President Trump through both of his presidential terms and voted with him more than 99 percent of the time. He has consistently called me a friend in this race,” Cornyn said in a post on X. Senate Republican allies and their affiliated groups had spent tens of millions of dollars backing Cornyn’s candidacy, reflecting how much institutional weight was aligned against the Paxton endorsement.
Why It Matters
Trump’s endorsement of Paxton represents a direct challenge to the Senate Republican establishment, which had spent months lobbying the president to back the incumbent. The president faced pressure from his base to endorse the state’s attorney general. Advisers had urged him to support Senator Cornyn, arguing that Paxton has too much baggage. By choosing Paxton, Trump signaled that ideological alignment and personal loyalty matter more to him than electability calculations offered by his own advisers and Senate allies.
The decision carries serious electoral risk. A University of Texas poll shows Democrat James Talarico winning by 7 points in a Cornyn matchup and by 8 points in a Paxton matchup, while Texas Public Opinion Research shows Talarico leading by 5 points against Paxton. Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, but several independent polls now show the Democratic nominee competitive regardless of which Republican emerges from the runoff — a reflection of broader shifts in the state’s suburban and urban electorate.
For Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Republican leadership, the endorsement creates an unwelcome scenario: either Paxton wins the runoff and becomes a riskier general election candidate, or Cornyn prevails in spite of the presidential rebuke and carries the awkward weight of a Trump-opposed candidacy into November. Neither path is comfortable for a party trying to maintain its Senate majority.
The race also illustrates the ongoing tension within the Republican coalition between its MAGA base and its traditional institutional wing — a tension that Trump has consistently resolved in favor of the base, regardless of strategic consequences.
Economic and Global Context
Texas accounts for the largest share of U.S. oil and gas production and is home to the headquarters of many of the nation’s largest energy companies. The outcome of this Senate race will therefore carry direct implications for energy regulation, federal leasing policy, and the legislative future of the recently passed budget reconciliation bill’s energy provisions. Both Paxton and Cornyn support expanded domestic energy production, but Paxton’s commitment to eliminating the filibuster could accelerate the pace of legislation on those fronts if elected.
The Texas race has become the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history, with both parties spending well over $100 million total so far. That spending reflects the national stakes attached to the contest. A Democratic win in Texas would fundamentally alter the Senate majority math, potentially flipping control of the chamber and reshaping the legislative prospects of the Trump administration’s remaining agenda in the second half of his term.
Texas is also a bellwether for the 2026 midterm environment. If Democrats are genuinely competitive in a state that Republicans have won by double digits for three decades, it signals structural national headwinds that extend well beyond the Lone Star State.
Implications
With early voting already underway at the time of Trump’s endorsement, its impact on turnout will be closely analyzed by both parties. The endorsement came just a day after the start of early voting, meaning a significant portion of the Republican electorate may have already cast ballots before Trump’s preference was made public. The final week of the campaign will now test how much the president’s endorsement can move late deciders in a race where institutional money has flowed heavily toward Cornyn.
If Paxton wins, he will carry substantial personal legal baggage into the general election. Cornyn’s campaign highlighted a series of scandals that have plagued Paxton, including his wife filing for divorce on “biblical grounds,” a felony indictment for securities fraud that was later settled, and an impeachment vote in 2023 where he was later acquitted. Democrats will make extensive use of that record.
If Cornyn wins despite Trump’s endorsement of Paxton, it would mark one of the most significant rebuffs of Trump’s political capital in the 2026 cycle and could embolden other Republicans to resist presidential pressure. That scenario would reverberate well beyond Texas.
For Republican voters across the country, the Paxton-Cornyn contest is a live question about what the party stands for — loyalty to a movement, or viability in a general election. Trump has answered clearly. Whether the rest of the party’s voters agree remains to be seen on May 26.
Sources
“Trump endorses Paxton in Texas Senate primary over incumbent Cornyn”Â
